John Healey won't rule out triple lock change before October 28th Budget

Chancellor John Healey has refused to rule out changes to the state pension triple lock. The lock guarantees that the state pension rises each year by whichever is highest of inflation, wage increases or 2.5%. When the BBC asked him about calls to scrap it, he said only that the government must bring down welfare costs while responding to "extreme pressure" in wider markets. He also would not say whether taxes will rise in the Budget he delivers on October 28th.

The exchange followed his first major speech as chancellor, at the Manufacturing and Technology Centre in Coventry. The BBC's Faisal Islam, who questioned him, wrote that neither answer was a denial and neither was a confirmation. Anyone who depends on the state pension will have to wait for the Budget to find out where they stand.

Healey opened his speech by admitting that "borrowing costs are too high". The BBC reported that UK long-term borrowing costs are at their highest since 1998 ahead of the Budget. Islam compared the global rise in bond yields to a boa constrictor slowly squeezing the Budget maths. That pressure is the background to every decision the chancellor now faces.

What Healey said about the triple lock and tax

Islam put to the chancellor the view of Lord O'Neill, whom the BBC described as one of the prime minister's favourite economists. Lord O'Neill has said the rise in borrowing rates is a golden opportunity to scrap the triple lock. Healey replied: "The prime minister has said, like I have, that we must bring down welfare costs, but we are also responding to the extreme pressure that is there in wider markets." The BBC noted that some people have argued the triple lock is unaffordable.

On tax, Islam told Healey that the speech did not seem to prepare the ground for significant tax rises in the way that Budget "scene setters" had in the past two years. After a pause, the chancellor said: "I won't comment. I can't comment. No chancellor can ahead of a Budget I will take and announce on October 28th." Islam compared him to a stubborn batsman staying at the crease and giving little away.

According to Islam, Downing Street is deliberately trying to boost the economic mood, which Healey called "a new story". The chancellor's view is that stressing fiscal discipline should give consumers, businesses and investors confidence rather than add to fears of tax rises. Islam reported some positive signs in consumer, business and recruiter confidence, though he said the hot weather and the World Cup had also helped. He concluded that where balancing the books clashes with growth, Healey sounds like a chancellor who might put growth first.

Who would be hit by a change to the triple lock

Any change would matter most to people who already receive the state pension and those approaching pension age, because the lock decides how much the pension goes up each year. Under the current rules the rise is the highest of inflation, wage growth or 2.5%, so pensioners are protected even when prices and pay grow slowly. No proposal to change this has been published. The sources give no figures for how much any individual pensioner might gain or lose.

Healey tied the question to welfare costs, saying he and the prime minister agree these must come down. He has not said which parts of welfare spending he has in mind. Taxpayers of all ages are also left waiting, since he would not say whether taxes will rise.

Workers are watching too. The BBC reported that 4,000 office-based job losses at Jaguar Land Rover were confirmed while Healey was answering questions a few miles from the firm's Coventry headquarters. The chancellor pointed to the cuts as an example of the global turbulence that he says the UK needs to be more resilient against.

Key numbers

• 2.5%: the lowest yearly rise the triple lock guarantees, used when inflation and wage growth are both lower.
• October 28th: the date Healey will announce his Budget.
• 1998: the last time UK long-term borrowing costs were this high, according to the BBC.
• 4,000: office-based job losses at Jaguar Land Rover, confirmed on the day of the speech.
• $1bn: the value at which a tech startup counts as a "unicorn". The government wants public finance institutions to help create more of these in the UK.

What happens between now and October 28th

Nothing has changed yet. The triple lock stays as it is and no tax decisions have been announced. Healey said no chancellor can comment before a Budget, so firm answers are unlikely before he delivers it. Until then, everything else is speculation.

In the meantime the chancellor is pushing his growth plans. Islam said the speech gave a clue to how Healey hopes to fund industrial policy while money is tight. Public finance institutions such as the British Business Bank and the National Wealth Fund can invest strategically and are less limited by the government's borrowing rules. Healey also urged caution over the effect of AI on security and jobs, saying some degree of "public control" could be needed. He said that, in the long run, growth will decide whether his borrowing rules are met.

What you can do now

If you receive the state pension or will soon, find out exactly what you get now and when you reach state pension age. You can check this with the government's state pension forecast service on GOV.UK or by contacting the Pension Service. Knowing these figures will help you understand how any change announced in the Budget would affect you.

Rumours tend to multiply before a Budget, so check any claim about pensions or tax against the official documents published on the day. Treat social media posts that claim to know the outcome with caution until the chancellor has spoken.

If you want to make your views on the triple lock known, you can write to your MP before October 28th. Your MP's contact details are on the Parliament website.

Your questions answered

Is the triple lock being scrapped?

Not as things stand. Healey refused to rule out a change when the BBC asked him, but he did not confirm one either. No proposal has been published, and the lock remains in place.

Will taxes go up in the Budget?

Healey said he would not and could not comment before October 28th. The BBC's Faisal Islam said the speech did not seem to prepare the ground for significant tax rises in the way previous years' speeches had. That is Islam's reading, not a government promise.

Why do borrowing costs matter for my pension?

Healey admitted borrowing costs are too high, and the BBC reports that long-term costs are at their highest since 1998. Higher borrowing costs squeeze the Budget. Lord O'Neill has argued this makes it a good moment to scrap the triple lock, and Healey responded by pointing to "extreme pressure" in wider markets.