Burnham puts triple lock up for review: what it means for your pension

Andy Burnham is expected to use his Labour conference speech in Liverpool to put the state pension triple lock up for review. The detail matters, though. Government sources told The Telegraph that the Prime Minister will call for the policy to be reviewed in Labour's next election manifesto. He will not promise to end it while he is in Number 10.

The triple lock has been in place since 2010. Under it, the state pension goes up every April by whichever is highest out of CPI inflation, average earnings growth or 2.5 per cent. Sir Keir Starmer won the 2024 election after promising to keep it, so any move away from it would break a promise millions of pensioners voted on.

The pressure has come from inside Labour. Senior figures want the money put towards a major overhaul of social care in England. Darren Jones, the former Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, said that if money was being moved to help older people in the care system, there might be "some reform that could be made" to the triple lock. Lord Blunkett, the former Work and Pensions Secretary, went further. He urged Mr Burnham to scrap it quickly and said doing so could save up to £22billion by 2030.

A senior insider told The Telegraph that one option is a "grand bargain". Pensioners would get social care free of charge and accept a lower pension in return. No figures have been published for how much lower the pension would be, or for who would qualify for free care. Until they are, pensioners have no way of knowing whether the deal would leave them better or worse off.

The Government points to the cost. Last year the Office for Budget Responsibility warned that the annual bill for the triple lock could reach £15.5billion by the end of the decade. Mr Burnham is expected to tell the conference that "we can't carry on as we are" and to call for an "honest conversation" about Britain's deep structural problems.

Opposition has come from several directions. Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite, said a National Care Service "shouldn't be instead of the triple lock" and argued that British pensioners already receive among the lowest payments in the G7. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has promised to leave the triple lock untouched, although senior figures around her are said to have privately admitted the cost is unsustainable. Reform UK Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick called the plans "frankly outrageous" and said the Government should cut the benefits bill, foreign aid and Net Zero subsidies instead.

Based on what has been briefed so far, the triple lock is not being scrapped today. Any change would be set out in Labour's next manifesto, so it would go before voters at a general election before it could take effect.

For ordinary households, this is the start of a long argument, not a done deal. Many pensioners count on the yearly rise to keep pace with bills. Anyone being asked to swap a guaranteed pension rise for a promise of free care should wait until the actual numbers are on the table.