£22bn triple lock row: what Labour's care plan could mean for pensioners

Senior Labour figures are pushing Prime Minister Andy Burnham to scrap the state pension triple lock and use the money to pay for a new NHS-style social care system in England. Former work and pensions secretary Lord Blunkett told The Telegraph that ending the guarantee could save up to £22billion by 2030, and he wants it done before the next election.

The triple lock is the promise that the state pension goes up every year by whichever is highest out of inflation, average earnings growth or 2.5 per cent. For millions of retired people it is the one part of their income that is guaranteed to keep pace with rising costs. Losing it would mean smaller rises in the years ahead.

Mr Burnham is expected to set out his plans for social care today. Speaking on the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, he said the new system would be one where "everyone contributes, everyone's covered", but not necessarily paid for in the same way as the NHS. Baroness Casey, who is leading a review of social care in England, will advise the Government on how it could work.

At the moment, social care in England is not free when you need it. According to the source report, people with savings above £23,250 are generally expected to pay the full cost of their own care. Scotland already offers free personal care to adults assessed as needing help with everyday tasks such as eating and bathing. Mr Burnham said he did not think it was right that people in England do not get the same.

Not everyone in the party agrees on how to pay for it. Former chief secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones suggested triple lock money could be moved into care. Health Secretary Wes Streeting told Sky News that the manifesto was clear and Labour is committed to the triple lock, and that Mr Burnham is standing by it. A senior Whitehall source said no decision has been made on the triple lock's future.

Mr Burnham has not ruled out tax rises to fund the plan and warned that funding decisions could be "difficult or unpopular". That has raised questions about Labour's pledge not to raise VAT, National Insurance or income tax. Some in the party think he could instead promise to scrap the triple lock at the next election as part of a package with the new care system.

The opposition has lined up against both options. Shadow home secretary Chris Philp accused Labour of wanting "more tax rises" and said the Conservatives would not back that approach. Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said a new care system "shouldn't be instead of the triple lock" and warned that unions would fight any swap, pointing out that British pensioners already get some of the lowest payments in the G7.

All this is happening while the welfare bill keeps growing. Pensions are already the biggest single part of it, and the whole bill is projected to go above £400billion a year by the end of this parliament. Cabinet minister Louise Haigh told The Observer that Labour MPs would back a plan to bring the welfare bill as a whole down.

For now, nothing has changed. Pensions still rise under the triple lock and care is still means-tested. But the direction is clear. Somebody is going to pay for free care, and ministers are working out whether that means your pension rise, your tax bill, or both. It is worth watching what the Prime Minister actually commits to today, and what he leaves out.